美国经济低靡，RIM调低预期
http://www.cction.com 2008-12-05 11:11 中企顾问网
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BlackBerry maker Research In Motion has conceded the weak U.S. economy has taken its toll on its fortunes, and has slashed its profit outlook because of slowing sales, narrower margins, and a stronger U.S. dollar.
In a surprise announcement Tuesday night, RIM warned it made less money and sold fewer BlackBerries than it had expected during the quarter that ended Nov. 29, based on preliminary figures.
RIM's already battered shares fell 5 percent to $35.47 on the Nasdaq shortly after market open as investors digested the news. The stock's year high is $148.13, set in June.
"Basically, Research In Motion is experiencing the effects of the slowing economy like other vendors of handsets and general consumer electronics devices," said First Analysis Securities Corp analyst Scott Pope.
RIM's profit warning came less than a month after RIM co-Chief Executive Jim Balsillie said the current market environment is fraught with challenges and referred to it as "a more intense time than I've ever known".
Investors and analysts have long worried that the slowdown in the economy could prompt corporate customers to delay upgrading their BlackBerry models from earlier versions in a bid to clamp down on costs.
Waterloo, Ontario-based RIM has pushed aggressively into the broad consumer market to diversify its customer base beyond the executives, politicians and professionals who have been its mainstay.
This means it could also be hurt as rank-and-file consumers tighten their belts, opting instead for cheaper and less feature-rich smartphones than RIM's BlackBerry.
"Since Research In Motion has entered the consumer space ... they are going to experience a revenue hit from slowing consumer spending," Pope said.
RIM has argued users are unlikely to give up their mobile phones to save money even as the economy falters.
The company also faces mounting competition from Apple's iPhone and from Nokia's latest lineup of smartphones.
RIM said in Tuesday's late-night announcement that it now expects third-quarter revenue of between $2.75 billion and $2.78 billion -- 9 percent below the midpoint of analysts' forecasts, which ranged from $2.77 to $3.10 billion.
Adjusted earnings are expected to be 81 cents to 83 cents per share, compared with the 89 cents to 97 cents per share the company had initially forecast.
Analysts, on average, had expected third-quarter earnings of 89 cents a share on revenue of $2.92 billion, according to Reuters Estimates.
"Product launch timing, general economic conditions and foreign exchange volatility have tempered our results in the third quarter," Balsillie said in a statement.
It was a sharp contrast to the bullish tone he had taken just two months ago when the company reported strong second-quarter results in late September.
Research In Motion was widely considered one of the leading stocks of the last tech investment cycle along with Apple Inc , Google Inc and Amazon Inc , which collectively were dubbed the Four Horsemen of Tech.
SUBSCRIPTIONS WEAKER
"Profits are being impacted by exchange rates but the fact that subscriber additions and shipments both look set to fall below expectations is tangible evidence that the market is slowing considerably in (the fourth quarter)" said analyst Geoff Blaber at CCS Insight.
"Whilst smartphones will be a growing segment in a shrinking market next year, this is further evidence that growth looks set to slow considerably compared with 2008."
Research In Motion's slowing subscriber growth coincides with the release this week by Nokia of a new set of models that aim to compete with the BlackBerry.
Nokia, the world's top cellphone maker, is expected to lower it mid-term profit forecasts at a global investor day in New York on Thursday.
RIM's move follows a similarly dire warning on Monday from long-struggling smartphone maker Palm Inc , maker of Treo and Centro devices, which said revenue for its latest quarter would fall from one-third to nearly one-half below Wall Street's already depressed expectations.
The revised earnings forecast excludes the negative effect on RIM's tax rate from the depreciation of the Canadian dollar relative to the U.S. dollar, RIM said. Third-quarter tax rates will range from 40 to 42 percent, a sharp hike from 29 to 30 percent rate in the second quarter.
The expected number of net new BlackBerry subscriber accounts added in the quarter would be about 2.6 million, 10 percent below its previous forecast for 2.9 million, RIM said.
But despite the lower results, the company said it had "experienced particularly strong momentum in recent weeks", which had continued into its fourth quarter.
RIM enjoyed a record number of weekly net new subscribers in the final week of November following the U.S. release of its hit Blackberry Storm device.
The Waterloo, Ontario-based company said it planned to report final third-quarter results and issue an outlook for its fiscal fourth quarter on Dec. 18.
In a surprise announcement Tuesday night, RIM warned it made less money and sold fewer BlackBerries than it had expected during the quarter that ended Nov. 29, based on preliminary figures.
RIM's already battered shares fell 5 percent to $35.47 on the Nasdaq shortly after market open as investors digested the news. The stock's year high is $148.13, set in June.
"Basically, Research In Motion is experiencing the effects of the slowing economy like other vendors of handsets and general consumer electronics devices," said First Analysis Securities Corp analyst Scott Pope.
RIM's profit warning came less than a month after RIM co-Chief Executive Jim Balsillie said the current market environment is fraught with challenges and referred to it as "a more intense time than I've ever known".
Investors and analysts have long worried that the slowdown in the economy could prompt corporate customers to delay upgrading their BlackBerry models from earlier versions in a bid to clamp down on costs.
Waterloo, Ontario-based RIM has pushed aggressively into the broad consumer market to diversify its customer base beyond the executives, politicians and professionals who have been its mainstay.
This means it could also be hurt as rank-and-file consumers tighten their belts, opting instead for cheaper and less feature-rich smartphones than RIM's BlackBerry.
"Since Research In Motion has entered the consumer space ... they are going to experience a revenue hit from slowing consumer spending," Pope said.
RIM has argued users are unlikely to give up their mobile phones to save money even as the economy falters.
The company also faces mounting competition from Apple's iPhone and from Nokia's latest lineup of smartphones.
RIM said in Tuesday's late-night announcement that it now expects third-quarter revenue of between $2.75 billion and $2.78 billion -- 9 percent below the midpoint of analysts' forecasts, which ranged from $2.77 to $3.10 billion.
Adjusted earnings are expected to be 81 cents to 83 cents per share, compared with the 89 cents to 97 cents per share the company had initially forecast.
Analysts, on average, had expected third-quarter earnings of 89 cents a share on revenue of $2.92 billion, according to Reuters Estimates.
"Product launch timing, general economic conditions and foreign exchange volatility have tempered our results in the third quarter," Balsillie said in a statement.
It was a sharp contrast to the bullish tone he had taken just two months ago when the company reported strong second-quarter results in late September.
Research In Motion was widely considered one of the leading stocks of the last tech investment cycle along with Apple Inc , Google Inc and Amazon Inc , which collectively were dubbed the Four Horsemen of Tech.
SUBSCRIPTIONS WEAKER
"Profits are being impacted by exchange rates but the fact that subscriber additions and shipments both look set to fall below expectations is tangible evidence that the market is slowing considerably in (the fourth quarter)" said analyst Geoff Blaber at CCS Insight.
"Whilst smartphones will be a growing segment in a shrinking market next year, this is further evidence that growth looks set to slow considerably compared with 2008."
Research In Motion's slowing subscriber growth coincides with the release this week by Nokia of a new set of models that aim to compete with the BlackBerry.
Nokia, the world's top cellphone maker, is expected to lower it mid-term profit forecasts at a global investor day in New York on Thursday.
RIM's move follows a similarly dire warning on Monday from long-struggling smartphone maker Palm Inc , maker of Treo and Centro devices, which said revenue for its latest quarter would fall from one-third to nearly one-half below Wall Street's already depressed expectations.
The revised earnings forecast excludes the negative effect on RIM's tax rate from the depreciation of the Canadian dollar relative to the U.S. dollar, RIM said. Third-quarter tax rates will range from 40 to 42 percent, a sharp hike from 29 to 30 percent rate in the second quarter.
The expected number of net new BlackBerry subscriber accounts added in the quarter would be about 2.6 million, 10 percent below its previous forecast for 2.9 million, RIM said.
But despite the lower results, the company said it had "experienced particularly strong momentum in recent weeks", which had continued into its fourth quarter.
RIM enjoyed a record number of weekly net new subscribers in the final week of November following the U.S. release of its hit Blackberry Storm device.
The Waterloo, Ontario-based company said it planned to report final third-quarter results and issue an outlook for its fiscal fourth quarter on Dec. 18.
